Yes. I have been building software and acting as tech lead for close to 30 years.
I am not even quite sure I know how to manage a team of more than two programmers right now. Opus 4.5, in the hands of someone who knows what they are doing, can develop software almost as fast as I can write specs and review code. And it's just plain better at writing code than 60% of my graduating class was back in the day. I have banned at least one person from ever writing a commit message or pull request again, because Claude will explain it better.
Now, most people don't know to squeeze that much productivity out of it, most corporate procurement would take 9 months to buy a bucket if it was raining money outside, and it's possible to turn your code into unmaintainable slop at warp speed. And Claude is better at writing code than it is at almost anything else, so the rest of y'all are safe for a while.
But if you think that tech writers, or translators, or software developers are the only people who are going to get hit by waves of downsizing, then you're not paying attention.
Even if the underlying AI tech stalls out hard and permanently in 2026, there's a wave of change coming, and we are not ready. Nothing in our society, economy or politics is ready to deal with what's coming. And that scares me a bit these days.
"And it's just plain better at writing code than 60% of my graduating class was back in the day".
Only because it has access to vast amount of sample code to draw a re-combine parts. Did You ever considered emerging technologies, like new languages or frameworks that may be a much better suited for You area but they are new, thus there is no codebase for LLM to draw from?
I'm starting to think about a risk of technological stagnation in many areas.
> Did You ever considered emerging technologies, like new languages or frameworks that may be a much better suited for You area but they are new, thus there is no codebase for LLM to draw from?
Try it. The pattern matching these things do is unlike anything seen before.
I'm writing a compiler for a language I designed, and LLMs have no trouble writing examples and tests. This is a language with syntax and semantics that does not exist in any training set because I made it up. And here it is, a machine is reading and writing code in this language with little difficulty.
Caveat emptor: it is far from perfect. But so are humans, which is where the training set originated.
> I'm starting to think about a risk of technological stagnation in many areas.
That just does not follow for me. We're in an era where advancements in technology continues to be roughly quadratic [1]. The implication you're giving is that the advancements are a step function that will soon (or has already) hit its final step.
This suggests that you are unfamiliar or unappreciative of how anything progresses, in any domain. Creativity is a function of taking what existed before and making it your own. "Standing on the shoulders of giants", "pulling oneself up by the bootstraps", and all that. None of that is changing just because some parts of it can now be automated.
Stagnation is the very last thing I would bet on. In part because it means a "full reset" and loss of everything, like most apocalyptic story lines. And in part because I choose to remain cautiously optimistic.
I am not even quite sure I know how to manage a team of more than two programmers right now. Opus 4.5, in the hands of someone who knows what they are doing, can develop software almost as fast as I can write specs and review code. And it's just plain better at writing code than 60% of my graduating class was back in the day. I have banned at least one person from ever writing a commit message or pull request again, because Claude will explain it better.
Now, most people don't know to squeeze that much productivity out of it, most corporate procurement would take 9 months to buy a bucket if it was raining money outside, and it's possible to turn your code into unmaintainable slop at warp speed. And Claude is better at writing code than it is at almost anything else, so the rest of y'all are safe for a while.
But if you think that tech writers, or translators, or software developers are the only people who are going to get hit by waves of downsizing, then you're not paying attention.
Even if the underlying AI tech stalls out hard and permanently in 2026, there's a wave of change coming, and we are not ready. Nothing in our society, economy or politics is ready to deal with what's coming. And that scares me a bit these days.