>Some years from now we may well be in a bubble and (...) the previous 1000 days of being wrong will be summarily ignored.
I might be misreading you, but it seems you don't think a bubble can last for 1000 days. It did in the 90's. I think your kind of attitude leads people who cry 'Bubble!' to say, after 1000 days, 'Um, I guess I was wrong. Damn, being wrong just cost me a 10x return on my investments I wasn't making. I better start investing before I lose even more!'
I literally remember reading a comment from someone in the late 90's 'Not buying a house 3 years ago has cost me 400,000.'
Well, in retrospect, no it didn't, it was just a bubble.
The protection against a bubble isn't waiting until it's a long, well-established bubble: the protection against a bubble is having lots of sales and lots of cash stored away. If you're punished too much after a bubble-pop in your valuation (get priced at a tiny price per earnings) great: you can now buy back your shares and mint money by selling them again when your price to earnings is something reasonable.
on the other hand, if you don't have sales, your price to earnings is infinite. Then it's not the bubble you should be worried about, it's getting customers.
I might be misreading you, but it seems you don't think a bubble can last for 1000 days. It did in the 90's. I think your kind of attitude leads people who cry 'Bubble!' to say, after 1000 days, 'Um, I guess I was wrong. Damn, being wrong just cost me a 10x return on my investments I wasn't making. I better start investing before I lose even more!'
I literally remember reading a comment from someone in the late 90's 'Not buying a house 3 years ago has cost me 400,000.'
Well, in retrospect, no it didn't, it was just a bubble.
The protection against a bubble isn't waiting until it's a long, well-established bubble: the protection against a bubble is having lots of sales and lots of cash stored away. If you're punished too much after a bubble-pop in your valuation (get priced at a tiny price per earnings) great: you can now buy back your shares and mint money by selling them again when your price to earnings is something reasonable.
on the other hand, if you don't have sales, your price to earnings is infinite. Then it's not the bubble you should be worried about, it's getting customers.