I don't know. I believe the most likely outcome is effects that are serious, but significantly less serious than the mainstream consensus claims. I believe the error bars are much wider than anyone admits. I believe the narrow range of countermeasures that it's politically acceptable to move towards implementing are not particularly reasonable and will not be effective.
Off-the-record conversations with (ex-) climate researchers I know personally. Which I don't expect anyone else to find convincing, but there's enough talk going around of researchers who got the "wrong" results getting pushed out that I found what they said more plausible than trusting the big-name journals etc.
