That's a big when. But in the end, NFC is a hardware issue. Square is adding the most value on the software and financial side of the equation. If anything, Square strikes me as the best positioned party, other than Apple, to capitalize on NFC once it sees some broad adoption.
If Apple makes the NFC APIs private, though, that could put the hurt on Square given their heavy iOS investment.
How would a private NFC API be any different than the non-existent stripe reader on the iphones? Should NFC (finally) start to catch on, couldn't Square just add an NFC module and continue to pipe data in via the headphone jack?
But Square enjoys a tremendous user experience advantage. It's easier for everyone to use.
Now, in my theoretical universe where Apple is a bunch of dicks and decides that they'll keep the NFC APIs to themselves, and assuming they run a service that competes with Square...
Who's going to want to attach a plastic weiner to their phone versus just having the "magical, it just works" action that Apple will provide with their service?
Of course, it may well be that Apple wants a usurious fee for their service (30%!) and Square could still compete on price. Still – a world where Square can harness NFC directly on an Apple device is a much better deal for them than one where they can't.
Yes and no. Adopting Square is much easier for both consumers and retailers than merchants adopting a POS NFC device in store. While I think both have difficult challenges in getting to scale (majority market penetration), I assume Square's route seems easier to adopt than the NFC route. Not to mention Square provides a slew of information/analytics that may be missing with early NFC adoption.
That said, there isn't any reason why Square wouldn't just transition their App to adopt both their physical Square device as well as the built-in NFC chips to have both working with their App (assuming NFC API are available). There's too much speculation and guessing to determine how things will turn out. But Square does have a lot going on for them at the moment between their partnership with VISA and their devices being sold in Apple stores. Hard to believe that they won't be able to innovate and pivot to continue growth even with NFC coming out eventually.
It's also worth noting that Square also works for non-merchants including random street vendors, hot dog stands, and the like to be able to accept credit card payments. NFC would not work for this crowd and that's another disruption Square is going to have in their favor.
I can't really support it, but it also just feels right that Apple would buy Square before they'd compete with them. So I'd wager on either Apple not going after POS or a targeted acquisition.
In regards to your first comment, just because Apple makes their own iPhone and iPad cases doesn't mean they can't sell cases made by other vendors. The metaphor here is even if Apple adopts its own internal NFC system, that doesn't mean it can't continue selling Square devices. Of course its hard to say whether or not Apple would feel Square would be in direct competition at this point or not.
On your second comment, I agree that a targeted acquisition would help Apple get a lead in the payment space but we'll have to wait and see how the whole NFC thing plays out to make that judgement call.
Yes, very positively. Square will be well-positioned to take advantage of this new way to transmit the account-holder's information to the merchant. While this is by far the easiest part of the payment process, Square will undoubtedly capitalize on it.
